These are great questions, but before I answer this most recent one, I feel as though I should remind you that my expertise is in student loans, and while the subject of these lawsuits is student debt, we are venturing in to constitutional law, contracts, and a number of other subjects.

That all said, reinstating a forgiven balance strikes me as an extreme outcome and highly unlikely. The timing of the lawsuits suggest that the Plaintiffs realize that undoing something is much harder than preventing it. Likewise, the relief sought often focuses on preventing something from happening rather than undoing it.

Oh I see this does fall under your response (whew). Here is the link to the current en banc appeal: https://nclalegal.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Mackinac-v.-Cardona-en-banc-petition.pdf

Thanks for your thoughts on this Michael, (I didn’t see an option to directly reply to your reply). Do you have a sense of how likely it would be that a ruling on IDR / PSLF payment count adjustments would be moving forward vs retroactive? In other words how likely would it be that millions of people would have loan balances reinstated?

These are fantastic questions.

I do think that we are likely to see another student loan case make its way to the Supreme Court. Generally speaking, cases going to the Supreme Court are rare because the Supreme Court has to acccpet the case and they only accept a small percentage. However, given the issues at stake here, there is a much higher chance that it makes it ot the court.

The end of the Chevron deference may impact the student loan cases, but I think the concerns that have been put out there are a bit overblown. For starters, the analysis on the student loan cases has envoked the major questions doctrine. This was an already announced analysis that already precluded a Chevron deference. That said, the current makeup of the court has shown a willingness to buck precedent, which makes projecting any potential outcomes more difficult.

…….and the bad news is they are appealing. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/07/01/2907102/0/en/NCLA-Asks-en-Banc-Sixth-Circuit-to-Stop-Unlawful-Biden-Scheme-to-Cancel-Student-Loan-Debt.html

I find it hard to imagine they wo t make it to SCOTUS with this case. It’s truly frightening especially with the Chevron decision. The only question in my mind is whether they will apply a ruling going forward or retroactively reinstate all of the forgiven debt under the IDR recount and PSLF waiver.
What the heck is happening?
Best,
Stephen

1. Do you think they will try to run this all the way to the Supreme Court?
2. Could Chevron decision impact this case (in other words will it be likely that we will see cases appealing for retro-reversals of initiatives like the IDR one time recalculation) now that Chevron has been thrown out?

Thanks Michael!
Best,
Stephen

Hi Michael, thanks for your thoughts on this – super helpful!
Regards,
Stephen

First, a couple of thoughts on appeals generally: After a district court rules, every party has the right to an appeal to a Court of Appeals, which is the document you are looking at. The Supreme Court is very different. While many litigants would like to go to the Surpreme Court, the Court only is willing to hear a very small portion of those cases. Appeals are granted in cases of major significance and cases where the rule in one circuit does not match the ruling of another circuit. While student loans are a topic of major signficance, this particular case is insignificant, especially compred to the two student loan cases that the court heard last term. It almost certainly will not take up this case.

As for your other questions, I think you are hitting at one of the points that makes their argument nonsensical. The government is fixing the PSLF program so that it works for borrowers where it has failed in the past. If anything, it makes working in public service more appealing, not less appealing.

That said, none of these issues are arguments will matter. The plaintiffs in this case don’t have standing, and the Court of Appeals should side with the district court that threw out the case on standing grounds.

1. Does the appeal seem to further underscore that they are in fact using PSLF forbearance forgiveness as a foundational principle for their argument, and
2. Do you think that ultimately dilutes or weakens their argument because wouldn’t it open up PSLF folks to having their debts reinstated based on what this appeal is asserting?

Having read the appeal do you think they have more, less or the same of a chance of kicking this up the chain to ultimately put it in front of the Supreme Court?

Thanks Michael!

Thanks for the kind words, Frank. More importantly, congrats on getting your debt forgiven!